For decades, the personal computer has been the center of our digital universe, and Windows has acted as the undisputed sun. But as we enter 2026, there is a gravitational shift. The rise of generative AI and autonomous agents is not just about adding a new feature to our taskbars; this fundamentally threatens the necessity of the operating system (OS) as we know it.
The question is no longer whether Windows will get better AI features, but whether AI will ultimately make Windows – and the hardware it runs on – obsolete.
The fragility of Windows hegemony
Windows is currently in a state of strategic disclosure. Despite Microsoft's aggressive marketing, adoption of Windows 11 has been extremely slow. As of the end of 2025, market data shows that almost 41% of users remained on Windows 10 even though it was near end of support. This “sticking” to an older operating system isn't just about nostalgia; it's a symptom that the platform has lost its “necessary” momentum.
The strict hardware requirements of Windows 11 (such as TPM 2.0) created the file friction point for millions of usersforcing a hardware refresh that many considered unnecessary. In an age when most important work is done in a browser or cloud-connected application, the underlying operating system has become a commodity. When the operating system becomes a barrier rather than a facilitator, users start looking for a way out. AI provides exactly that: a way to interact with data and services without having to navigate the outdated “folders and files” metaphor that Windows has relied on since 1985.
Replacement of the productivity package
For years, the “moat” around Windows was Microsoft Office. You used Windows because you needed Word, Excel and PowerPoint. However, we are entering the era of “speed of results”. In this new paradigm, productivity apps are being replaced by Agentic artificial intelligence.
Consider how we used to work: To analyze a quarterly budget, you opened Excel, imported the data, created a pivot table, and then copied the chart into a PowerPoint presentation. Today you can simply invoke advanced AI: “Analyze my third quarter expenses against the budget and create a five-slide summary for management.” AI doesn't “open” applications in the traditional sense; justifies the data and generates the result. When AI becomes the interface, the individual “app” becomes a background service. If you don't need to manually click Excel ribbons, you don't necessarily need an operating system that supports them. We're moving from the world of “software tools” to the world of “digital outputs,” and during this transition, the Windows desktop begins to look like a cluttered, unnecessary middleman.
Beyond the mouse and keyboard: the hardware revolution
The threat to Windows extends to the very hardware we use. Since the Xerox PARC era, personal computers have been defined using the WIMP (Windows, Icons, Menus, Indicators) interface. This required a specific physical setup: screen, keyboard and mouse.
However, artificial intelligence is multimodal. He understands voice, gestures and even intentions. As AI agents become more autonomous, the need for precise input devices such as a mouse begins to fade. Microsoft's own “Vision 2030” considers a future in which typing and using a mouse is as foreign to future generations as DOS is to Gen Z.
We are already witnessing the birth of “AI-first” hardware – devices such as next-generation wearables, smart glasses and home environment hubs. These devices do not need a 15-inch display or a QWERTY keyboard because their primary interface is natural language. If the “computer” of the future is a pair of glasses or a puck on a desk that you just talk to, the “Desktop” is dead. In this scenario, the PC is replaced by “Personal Hotspots” that move heavy computing to the cloud, making your local high-powered Windows PC a relic of the past.
New important players and geopolitical winners
If Windows is removed, who will take the throne? The winners will not necessarily be other operating system makers such as Apple or Google, but rather the companies that control the “AI stack”:
- NVIDIA and AMD: As we move from general-purpose CPUs to AI-centric GPUs and NPUs (Neural Processing Units), these silicon giants are becoming the new “platform.”
- OpenAI and Anthropic: These companies are building “brains” that will serve as the actual interface for users, effectively becoming the new “operating systems” of the mind.
- Cloud Titans: Amazon (AWS) and Google are able to provide the “unlimited computing power” that AI-based hardware will rely on.
From a geopolitical perspective, this shift favors countries that were early adopters of advanced semiconductor manufacturing and artificial intelligence infrastructure. The Pax Silica Alliance.— including the United States, Japan, South Korea and the Netherlands — are strengthening their control over the tools necessary to build this future.
However, emerging hubs such as Vietnam, Malaysia and the United Arab Emirates stand to benefit greatly as the AI hardware supply chain shifts away from traditional hubs. These countries are investing heavily in “computer farms” and packaging plants, betting that the next billion “PCs” will not be boxes made in China, but AI-enabled wearables made in Southeast Asia.
Timeline: When does the Windows sun set?
It won't happen overnight, but the roadmap is becoming clear:
- 2025–2027 (Hybrid phase): This is where we are now. AI is an “add-on” to Windows (Copilot). People still use keyboards, but AI agents are starting to handle background tasks. (Recall that Windows started as a user interface overlay on top of DOS and did not become an operating system until much later.)
- 2027–2030 (Separation): AI-based hardware is starting to reach price levels similar to those of mid-range laptops. Enterprise thin clients are starting to replace traditional PCs in offices as cloud agents do most of the work. (Just as PCs replaced terminals).
- 2030 and beyond (post-PC era): The “Operating System” becomes invisible. For the average consumer, “Windows” is an outdated environment that they can access through a browser and install old applications, but their daily digital lives are managed by a multimodal AI that doesn't bother with the “Start” menu. (This is more like the rise of smartphones, which are also at risk of being replaced).
Summary
The era of Windows as the centerpiece of technology is coming to an end, not because it has failed, but because the computing medium has changed. We are moving from a world where humans have to learn the language of machines (clicking, typing, file paths) to a world where machines have learned the language of humans. While Microsoft is desperately trying to reinvent Windows as an “agent operating system,” it is struggling with decades of legacy code and user expectations.
The forecast for 2030 predicts a fragmented but more intuitive ecosystem where the “computer” is no longer a device you sit at, but a presence you carry with you. Windows will likely survive as a legacy enterprise tool, like mainframes before it, but the “personal” in PCs is moving into artificial intelligence.
As President and Chief Analyst of the Enderle Group, Rob provides regional and global companies with guidance on creating a credible dialogue with the market, reaching customer needs, creating new business opportunities, anticipating technological changes, selecting suppliers and products, and practicing zero-dollar marketing. For over 20 years, Rob has worked for and with companies including Microsoft, HP, IBM, Dell, Toshiba, Gateway, Sony, USAA, Texas Instruments, AMD, Intel, Credit Suisse First Boston, ROLM and Siemens.
