Intel didn't enter 2026. It stumbled. The chipmaker's first-quarter forecast was weaker than Wall Street expected, and the reaction came quickly: raised eyebrows, falling shares and a familiar feeling of anxiety.
The company forecast revenues and profits that exceeded expectations – which can be seen in the profit forecasts shows how difficult this improvement is.
If you're thinking, “Haven't we heard this story before? – you're not wrong. Intel was honest about its growth problems. New factories, new processes, endless money flowing in, and no quick profits.”
The broader chip market also provides no safety net. Demand outside of AI remains sluggish, and this gap has weighed on traditional chipmakers longer than many might have expected – and the movement has quietly spread across the industry.
What complicates everything is timing. Intel seeks to position itself as a pillar of the future chip supply – reliable, domestic and strategic.
This works great in Washington and Brussels; markets prefer evidence to promises. A benign forecast doesn't destroy history, but it certainly undermines optimism.
Intel's bold effort to reinvent itself as a major foundry player was ambitious, costly and thoroughly proven.
There is a less visible tension behind the numbers. Engineers working on delayed milestones. Managers combine patience and pressure.
Investors wonder how much of the pain is “strategic” and how much is just… pain. Some cling to the view that state incentives and industrial policy will give Intel the time it needs, especially as Western economies move more aggressively toward trying to shift chip production again.
So how does Intel fare? Unbroken. Not saved. Somewhere in the middle of uncomfortable. It's not a fall – it's a grind.
And the grind doesn't make for sexy headlines, but it does determine who will be in power in five years.
The issue isn't whether Intel can afford this overhaul. What matters is whether the market will have the patience to allow it to be completed.
